未来电影发展趋势分析

导读：未来电影发展趋势分析。电影票房告别爆发增长期，进入温和增长阶段。

        参考《2017-2022年中国电影行业现状深度调查及十三五投资战略规划报告》

        电影票房告别爆发增长期，进入温和增长阶段

        • 经历数年高速增长后，无论人均观影次数还是银幕数量都有了长足的提升，边际改善效用下滑，考虑到目

        前票房基数已经较大，高增速难以维持，增速切换是行业发展的正常状态

         一二线城市趋于饱和，未来增量在三四五线

         • 我国城镇人口人均观影次数约为1.7次，一二线城市接近3次，三四五线城市仍仅1次左右，参考国际发达国

         家（北美4次、韩国5次、日本2次），一二线上升空间有限，而三四五线仍存在翻倍空间

         银幕快速扩张期已过，银幕边际带动效用下滑

         •目前我国每万人银幕数为0.5块，已经接近中等发达国家的水平，一二线城市已趋近饱和，未来增长速度将

         下滑，而基于目前的银幕数量，未来银幕增长带动观影人次增长的边际效用也将递减产业链整合将常态化，行业集中度进一步提升

•                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      与国际成熟市场相比，我国电影产业链各环的集中度均仍不高，产业链的整合有望延续，尤其是龙头院线的横向并购与向上游的延伸

关注非票房电影市场，网络点播与衍生品将有数倍发展空间

• 对标美国80%的电影衍生市场，我国的电影网络点播、版权使用与衍生品收入占比仍不足10%，有数倍发展空间

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